[New post] Uncertainty in financial crisis prediction: a Bayesian approach

BankUnderground posted: " Jack Page Systemic financial crises occur infrequently, giving relatively few crisis observations to feed into the models that try to warn when a crisis is on the horizon. So how certain are these models? And can policymakers trust them when makin" Bank Underground Uncertainty in financial crisis prediction: a Bayesian approach BankUnderground May 31 Jack Page Systemic financial crises occur infrequently, giving relatively few crisis observations to feed into the models that try to warn when a crisis is on the horizon. So how certain are these models? And can policymakers trust them when making vital decisions related to financial stability? In this blog, I build a Bayesian neural network to predict financial crises. I show that such a framework can effectively quantify the uncertainty inherent in prediction. Read more of this post Comment Unsubscribe to no longer receive posts from Bank Underground. Change your email settings at manage subscriptions. Trouble clicking? Copy and paste this URL into your browser: https://bankunderground.co.uk/2022/05/31/uncertainty-in-financial-crisis-prediction-a-bayesian-approach/ Powered by WordPress.com