The Great Rollover

John

Aug 2

"Like I told my last wife, I says, "Honey, I never drive faster than I can see. Besides that, it's all in the reflexes." – Big Trouble in Little China

I tried to buy a hamburger with cheese, but they wanted cash instead.

Yellow Freight® shut down. They had been around for 99 years, starting business way back in time when Bernie Sanders was trying to ruin Austro-Hungarian Empire or Bulgaria or wherever he came from.

Yellow Freight© was an old company and 30,000 people lost their jobs. What went on? Well, Yellow© borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars emergency 'rona bucks. When they went bankrupt, they had an outstanding loan balance (backstopped by you and I) of $729.2 million. During the two and a half years that they'd had the loan, they'd paid down $54.8 million in interest. They'd also paid down $230 in principle.

Not $230 million. Not $230 thousand. $230, so I'm guessing their strategy was to pay it off at $10 a month, which would ensure that they'd pay off the loan in roughly the year 6,079,523.

Oddly, no one would take a risk on refinancing a company that had such powerhouse earnings, and so all of the people who used to have pensions with Yellow found out that their pension value would be paid out at the same rate as the loan was being paid out, and it's pretty hard to split $10 among 30,000 people each month.

I hate to point fingers, but whatever executive thought orange was yellow just might be at fault.

Most of the 30,000 folks from Yellow Freight© will find another job – truckers are still in demand, and other companies have picked up the slack so far.

This isn't the first. Just like the banks who had money in Treasury paper took a hit (Silicon Valley Bank®, I'd be looking at you if you were still here) because the "super-safe" bonds making 1% were worth a lot less when interest rates went up to 4%. The FDIC requires the banks that they insure to report data. It's kinda scary when the FDIC© uses the X® (the social media company formerly known as Prince) to notify banks (and the American public) that banks might be in trouble again.

I guess no one is making them account for their problems?

The same thing is, perhaps, happening to the dollar itself – today lost its AAA bond rating from Fitch and is now producing AA bonds. Still a good rating, but it's a big hit from "nearly perfect plus has nuclear missiles" and the first step to becoming a "drunk wine aunt country that can't afford to take vacations", like Uzbekistan.

As I've written before, it's awesome to have "the reserve currency", since that means you can print all the cash you want and spend it on things like iPods from China, Hello Kitty slippers from Bangladesh, and tequila from Mexico (what's known as a "Hunter Biden Saturday Morning Special"). Losing it means a loss of that ability, and all of a sudden you have to work for all of that stuff rather than just printing cash.

Hunter Biden's credit card company called him about suspicious activity. Seems that someone made a payment.

That's difficult, because there's always competition in having the reserve currency. One competitor, of course, is precious metals. Another is land. My father-in-law liked to say, "if it blows up, at least you still have the hole." After the debt ceiling deal (translation: spend as much as you want until after the general election), the debt shot up, climbing $1.8 trillion in just two months. I mean, that's a crazy number, we don't even give that much to Zelenskyy in a year!

I know mortgage payments are going up, but just try telling a homeless person how lucky they are.

Eventually that has an effect on all assets. Although Darth Powell doesn't exactly have the understanding of how home prices work, it is closer to say that at the same payment at a 7% mortgage rate, you can afford a heck of a lot less home than you can afford at 2.7%. Unless wages go up or BlackRock© decides to buy houses because they ran out of illegal aliens to import this month.

Or, if the bankers get absolute control over who uses what cash and when. That's the goal. Will that happen if things are going well, and we're surrounded by prosperity?

Of course not. In order to get control, the idea is chaos, uncertainty, war, and mayhem. If you're old enough, how do the 2020s compare to the 1980s? The 1990s? The 2000s? In nearly every way that doesn't involve ludicrously cheap televisions, each of those decades was objectively better. I've noted before that Peak USA probably hit somewhere before I was born to when I was a little kid.

Why do central bankers never travel together? They're a bunch of loan wolves.

I'm normally a fan of the idea of ineptitude being responsible for at least being some contributing factor to the problems that we have, but when I look at the gross mismanagement of the economy for decades it almost seems like it's planned.

But I'm sure I'll hear Bernie lecturing us all that socialism and more government is the way out from the balcony of one of his three houses soon enough. After all, it's worked out pretty well for him, what with him never having had an actual job and all.